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Oliver Lee
Oliver Lee

Is It Worth Buying Bitcoin Now



As troubles in the traditional banking sector grow, bitcoin is benefitting, and risk sentiment has turned bullish on the once-beleaguered coin. Starting 2023 at around $16,600, the bitcoin price has risen a dramatic 70% and now sits around $26,969 as of 28 March.




is it worth buying bitcoin now


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One of the primary drivers of the recent rise in bitcoin price is the goldilocks market regime that appears to be developing. Inflation in the US has fallen from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 6.0%, and consequently the Fed has been able to slow its rate hikes. Markets are pricing rate cuts for 2023, and this is bolstering risk assets such as equities and crypto. Crypto has also already priced in a lot of bad news recently, leaving the way open for upside moves.


Before the early 2023 bull run, bitcoin was having a miserable time. This was due to several events, both crypto-specific and part of the broader macro backdrop. You can see the current BTC price on the chart below and its historical progress through 2022.


Moreover, there are ongoing fears that the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates will plunge the world into a recession. Our recession probability indicator remains over 70%. Bitcoin is yet to experience a serious global recession, but we expect one would limit any potential upside in price action. This is because during times of economic uncertainty and weak growth, investors may be more inclined to sell risky assets like bitcoin and seek safer investments such as government bonds.


One exercise is to see how low prices could get were the NASDAQ to suffer a 2000-style crash. After all, earlier in 2021, the bitcoin and NASDAQ correlation reached highs of almost 80%. So where the NASDAQ went, bitcoin followed. The correlation has declined recently, but should it rise again, the historical drawdowns of NASDAQ could be informative.


Back in 2000, the NASDAQ suffered a 78% drawdown. As of November 2022, the NASDAQ is in a 27% drawdown. A repeat of the 2000-style drawdown would put the NASDAQ at 3,500. So where would crypto be if NASDAQ were trading at this level? We estimate a regression between bitcoin/ethereum returns and NASDAQ returns from 2020 onwards. Based on this relationship, we find:


We think bitcoin is a worthwhile long-term investment. However, we also note that bitcoin is extremely volatile. That means it experiences large price movements over short periods. Before investing, you must understand the risks involved: you could lose all or a large portion of your investment. Never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.


However, to invest in cryptocurrency, we must first understand it. Crypto tokens are unlike any traditional asset class. And they are all different. Just because you understand bitcoin, does not mean you know how ethereum works. Our video on bitcoin fundamentals can help you understand how bitcoin prices fluctuate and how to assess trends in important bitcoin metrics.


We think crypto markets are a worthwhile long-term investment. The technology can capture market share on some existing markets like payments and stock trading while creating new markets like valuable scarce digital assets.


We suggest paying attention to the long-term macro backdrop when asking yourself, should I buy bitcoin right now? Your exposure to bitcoin needs to be appropriately sized so that you can survive 50% to 80% drawdowns. Drawdowns provide good entry levels for exposure, but we would not go max long in an environment of rising central bank rates and falling global growth momentum.


For trading bitcoin over the next two to four weeks, we are slightly bearish. That means we expect falling prices. However, we think bitcoin is a good long-term investment for the next one to three years and are bullish overall. That means we expect prices to rise in the long term.


As with all investments, the value of bitcoin can rise as well as fall. While it is unlikely that bitcoin will suffer a complete loss of value, investors must be prepared to suffer drawdowns of between 50% and 80%. We recommend small allocations and diversification of your portfolio. Never invest what you cannot afford to lose.


Traditional wisdom says you should buy low and sell high. But whether you should sell bitcoin depends on your investment horizon, risk appetite and financial goals. Although some websites speculate that certain days of the week are better or worse than others for selling bitcoin, we believe that any decision to buy or sell should be based on an analysis of crypto fundamentals.


We think some cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH are a worthwhile long-term investment. However, they are also extremely volatile. That means large price movements over short periods are common. Before investing, you must understand the risks involved: you could lose all or a large portion of your investment. Never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.


Smart contract platforms: after bitcoin, the big innovation was to have blockchains that were more programmable. These could host smart contracts or decentralised applications and have allowed the emergence of the metaverse and defi. Ethereum (ETH) is the most popular version of a smart contract platform. As well as ethereum, we also include some key competitors. The constituents of this index are: Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), Solana (SOL), Fantom (FTM), VeChain (VET), Terra (LUNA), EOS (EOS), and Chainlink (LINK). We also include Polkadot (DOT) which allows interoperability between blockchains and the use of smart contracts via parachains.


While crypto is starting to trend upward, volatile highs and lows are nothing new in the crypto markets -- and skeptics have long characterized crypto as an empty bubble destined to burst. Critics have called bitcoin, stablecoins and NFTs simply a new digital version of an old con primed to swindle and scam. But investors see the world of digital coinage as a step forward, a kind of "Money 2.0" that will democratize finance and power the metaverse. Amid the seesawing prices and teetering sentiments, one thing hasn't changed: Cryptocurrency remains controversial, risky and wildly volatile.


In simple terms, cryptocurrency is a digital token, ownership of which is recorded on a blockchain, a distributed software ledger that no one controls. This is designed to make it more secure, in theory. bitcoin and ethereum are the two most widely known cryptocurrencies, but more than 18,000 tokens are traded under different names (dogecoin is one famous example).


But it's worth considering whether cryptocurrency is a smart investment for you... especially in light of the current downturn and the ever-present potential for a major crash (in crypto and the US economy, generally).


Whether you're using Coinbase, Binance, Venmo or PayPal, you'll be required to provide some sensitive personal and financial information... including an official form of identification. (So much for bitcoin's reputation for anonymous transactions.)


Yes. Whether you're buying, selling or exchanging crypto, the IRS wants to know about it. Your tax liability depends on your particular situation, but crypto investments are broadly treated like other investments, including stocks and bonds.


An easy way to make a foolproof portfolio is to invest in a high-risk, high-reward asset alongside gold or other precious metals. Ultimately, whether you should buy a hundred dollars worth of Bitcoins right now depends on what you think about this coin and crypto in general and its future potential.


Binance, Coinbase, Huobi, and Changelly are among the best cryptocurrency exchanges you can find for buying Bitcoin. You can also choose not to use a crypto exchange altogether and instead opt for buying Bitcoin on P2P platforms, getting it via a Bitcoin ATM, Cash App, PayPal, or even engaging in Bitcoin mining.


"I think [bitcoin is] going to reach $100,000 this year, probably by the middle of it," Antoni Trenchev, co-founder and managing partner of cryptocurrency lending platform Nexo, told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Monday.


Other experts have made similar predictions. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management, in an October interview with Bloomberg TV said that bitcoin could hit that $100,000 mark in 2022.


If buying crypto doesn't fit into your long-term financial goals, you shouldn't purchase it just because it's trading at a relative discount, according to Ivory Johnson, a certified financial planner and founder of Delancey Wealth Management in Washington, D.C.


Investors should have a clear reason for buying crypto instead of being pulled in only because the price dropped, he said. Reasons include seeing the asset as a store of value, viewing it as uncorrelated or wanting to own it because of the increasing rate of adoption.


Cryptocurrencies had a particularly turbulent time in 2022, with the price of bitcoin dropping below $16,000. But there are now signs that the crypto market is starting to recover.


The price of bitcoin has surged 75% since its lowest point last year and is now worth around $28,000. So should you steer clear of the notoriously volatile asset or have faith that it can make a comeback?


Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are digital assets that operate similar to normal currency, but with significant differences. They use peer to peer payment methods, without the banks taking a cut with every transaction, albeit if you are using a broker they will likely be taking a cut for every transaction. There are no physical versions of the coins either.


Bitcoin previous performance might give some investors confidence of a full recovery. In 2018 bitcoin plunged by 83% before going on to reach fresh record highs in 2020 and 2021. People having built up some savings during lockdown helped the price prop up.


Early investors in cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin will probably have made money. If you had spent 310 to buy one bitcoin in April 2016, six years later your investment would have been worth about 24,000. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. 041b061a72


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